The Bubble Gets Spooky: FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 8

Explore our 2026 FCS playoff predictions after Week 8, including 16 projected seeds, automatic bids, Last Four In and First Four Out.

Oct 29, 2026 by Ajay Shah

The Bubble Gets Spooky: FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 8

Halloween is approaching, and FCS playoff contenders are starting to act like characters in horror movies.

Just when survival seems possible, somebody decides to split up, investigate that noise or check the basement when the lights go out.

We’re forecasting Selection Sunday, which means the monsters on the remaining schedule matter just as much as the ones teams have already escaped. We’re giving UAlbany our final invitation, leaving Weber State outside and trusting Campbell to survive a monstrous November.

Folks, welcome back to the bubble.

UPCOMING

2026 Campbell vs UAlbany

Tomorrow · 4:00 PM UTC

WATCH

FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 8

The 2026 FCS playoff field consists of 24 teams: 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections. Sixteen teams receive seeds, with the top eight earning first-round byes.

These predictions consider current résumés, conference races, remaining schedules and the games we expect contenders to win or lose.

Records below reflect completed games through Oct. 24. AFCA rankings come from the Oct. 26 Coaches Poll. The projected seeds are ours.

Projected FCS Playoff Seeds 1–16

The bold number represents our projected playoff seed. AQ means projected automatic qualifier.

1. Montana State (7–1) — AFCA No. 3 — Big Sky — AQ
2. Tarleton State (8–0) — AFCA No. 1 — UAC — AQ
3. Stephen F. Austin (8–0) — AFCA No. 2 — Southland — AQ
4. South Dakota State (6–2) — AFCA No. 5 — MVFC — AQ
5. Youngstown State (6–2) — AFCA No. 4 — MVFC — At-large
6. Northern Arizona (6–2) — AFCA No. 7 — Big Sky — At-large
7. Austin Peay (7–2) — AFCA No. 8 — UAC — At-large
8. Harvard (6–0) — AFCA No. 16 — Ivy League — AQ
9. Campbell (7–1) — AFCA No. 15 — CAA — AQ
10. South Dakota (7–2) — AFCA No. 6 — MVFC — At-large
11. East Tennessee State (6–2) — AFCA No. 18 — SoCon — AQ
12. Tennessee Tech (7–1) — AFCA No. 10 — SoCon — At-large
13. Lamar (6–2) — AFCA No. 13 — Southland — At-large
14. North Dakota (6–3) — AFCA No. 11 — MVFC — At-large
15. Lehigh (6–2) — AFCA No. 20 — Patriot League — AQ
16. Monmouth (6–2) — AFCA No. 17 — CAA — At-large

Unseeded FCS Playoff Teams

These eight teams complete our projected field. Their order does not represent official seeds 17–24.

Montana (5–3) — AFCA No. 14 — Big Sky — At-large
Illinois State (6–2) — AFCA No. 9 — MVFC — At-large
Mercer (6–2) — AFCA No. 12 — SoCon — At-large
Richmond (6–2) — AFCA No. 19 — Patriot League — At-large
UAlbany (5–3) — AFCA No. 25 — CAA — At-large
Southeast Missouri State (5–3) — AFCA Unranked (RV) — Ohio Valley — AQ
Central Connecticut State (4–3) — AFCA Unranked (RV) — NEC — AQ
Dayton (6–1) — AFCA Unranked — Pioneer — AQ

RV means receiving votes outside the AFCA Top 25.

Last Four In

These are the four most vulnerable at-large selections in our projected field.

Illinois State: We’re predicting an 8–4 finish, including a victory over South Dakota in the finale. The Redbirds’ FBS win over Northern Illinois helps, but trips to North Dakota and Youngstown State leave little room for comfort.
Mercer: Our forecast includes wins over The Citadel and Chattanooga before losses to Tennessee Tech and ETSU. That leaves the Bears 8–4, with the Chattanooga game particularly important.
Richmond: The Spiders’ 13–6 win over Colgate helped their case. We’re projecting an 8–4 finish, including losses to Villanova and Lehigh. Winning either would give Richmond more breathing room.
UAlbany: The Great Danes get our final invitation. We’re picking Campbell to beat them Saturday, followed by UAlbany victories over Bryant, Maine and North Carolina A&T to finish 8–4.

First Four Out

Princeton: Our forecast has the Tigers finishing 7–3, including a loss at Yale. Winning out to reach 8–2 would force us to reconsider, especially given their 22–0 victory over UAlbany.
Weber State: We’re predicting wins over UC Davis and Utah Tech, a loss at Northern Arizona and a 7–5 finish. The Wildcats remain close, but we prefer the projected résumés of our final selections.
UC Davis: Projected losses at Weber State and Idaho leave the Aggies 7–5. Winning either road game would give their case a meaningful boost.
Stony Brook: We can see an 8–4 finish, but the Seawolves’ 48–31 home loss to UAlbany hurts the comparison. A Nov. 7 upset of Campbell would change that discussion.

Montana State Gets The Michael Myers Treatment

Weber State led Montana State 27–17 at halftime. Our projected No. 1 seed was in trouble.

Then Montana State sat back up.

The Bobcats rallied to win 38–33, demonstrating the problem with declaring the monster finished before the credits roll.

The committee ranked Montana State first in its initial Top 10. We’re keeping it there with a projected 11–1 finish, including wins over Idaho State and Montana. Its existing victory over Northern Arizona supports our Big Sky AQ pick.

Beware, SFA: There's A Ranked Slasher On The Loose

We’re predicting Stephen F. Austin finishes 12–0 and earns the No. 3 seed. First, the Lumberjacks have to survive Beaumont.

Lamar is 4–0 at home against ranked opponents since 2024, including a win over No. 4 South Dakota in 2025. SFA visits Nov. 7 with exactly the résumé that gets a starring role in Lamar’s next sequel.

We’re picking SFA, but this is one of our bracket’s riskier assumptions. Lamar’s wins include Idaho and Abilene Christian, and our forecast gives the Cardinals a 9–3 finish and the No. 13 seed.

Tarleton stays second with a projected unbeaten finish, supported by victories over Bowling Green and Austin Peay. SFA moves ahead of Youngstown State in our forecast, although its non-Division I win makes adding a victory at Lamar particularly important.

North Dakota's Bye Has Been Exorcised

North Dakota jumped to our No. 5 seed after beating South Dakota State. One trip to the DakotaDome later, the furniture is floating and the bye has disappeared.

UND erased a 17-point deficit before losing 26–23 in overtime at South Dakota. Now it visits Youngstown State on Halloween, and we’re picking the Penguins.

Home wins over Illinois State and Southern Illinois would then leave UND 8–4 and seeded 14th. The SDSU victory keeps its résumé strong, but a fourth loss makes a bye difficult to justify.

We’re also predicting South Dakota loses at SDSU and Illinois State, finishing 8–4 as our tenth seed.

SDSU and Youngstown both win out in our forecast. The Jackrabbits’ head-to-head victory supports our projected MVFC automatic bid; Youngstown remains fifth as an at-large selection.

Campbell's Remaining Schedule Is A Monster Mash

We’ve spent weeks backing Campbell. Now the Camels have to survive UAlbany, Stony Brook, Elon and Monmouth while we stand behind them holding a clipboard.

There’s a werewolf in every direction. UAlbany is our final selection, Stony Brook wants into the field, and Monmouth gets the last chance to wreck our CAA prediction.

We’re picking Campbell to win all four and finish 11–1, but Saturday’s trip to Albany immediately tests that confidence.

Monmouth has a friendlier path before the finale. We’re forecasting wins over Bryant, North Carolina A&T and Merrimack before a loss at Campbell produces a 9–3 finish. Existing wins over UAlbany and New Hampshire help keep the Hawks seeded 16th.

Harvard, Austin Peay And The Last Two Treats

There are eight byes, and somebody just noticed the candy bowl is almost empty.

Northern Arizona gets our sixth seed at a projected 10–2, winning its final four games. Victories over Montana and Idaho State support that placement.

Austin Peay gets seventh. We’re picking wins over Eastern Kentucky, Abilene Christian and Central Arkansas to finish 10–2.

Harvard takes eighth with a projected 10–0 season. The committee initially ranked Austin Peay ninth and Harvard tenth, giving both a stronger starting point than their AFCA positions suggest.

Campbell gets ninth and asks why Harvard received the king-size candy bar.

Fair question. An 11–1 Campbell team with wins over UAlbany and Monmouth would have a substantial argument. Harvard gets our narrow edge.

Princeton Is The Ghost Of UAlbany's Past

Every time we try to explain UAlbany's selection, Princeton appears in the mirror.

"22–0" seems to write itself in the fog.

The Tigers shut out the Great Danes in September. Now UAlbany is our final team in, and Princeton is our first team out.

Our forecast makes the difference: UAlbany finishes 8–4 by losing to Campbell, then beating Bryant, Maine and North Carolina A&T. Road wins over Stony Brook and Rhode Island help its case.

Princeton finishes 7–3 in our projection, including a loss at Yale. Sweep Cornell, Dartmouth, Yale and Penn to reach 8–2, however, and that head-to-head shutout becomes extremely difficult to overlook.

Montana Is Our Bracket’s Final Girl

Montana keeps surviving, although its billing gets smaller every week.

The Grizzlies were our No. 2 seed after Week 5, No. 7 after Week 6 and No. 14 last week. Now they’re unseeded.

We’re predicting wins over Eastern Washington, Portland State and Idaho State before a loss at Montana State leaves them 8–4. Their 62–22 victory over UC Davis helps justify another appearance in our bracket.

We expect other teams to finish with stronger seeding cases. Montana still wins enough to survive—but another loss before the Brawl of the Wild would make that ending much less convincing.

Illinois State Has Entered The Saw Portion Of The Schedule

Illinois State closes at North Dakota, at Youngstown State, and home against South Dakota.

Less trick-or-treat. More “would you like to play a game?”

We’re predicting losses on both road trips before a win over South Dakota produces an 8–4 finish.

That finale matters. The Redbirds have an FBS victory over Northern Illinois, but their record includes a non-Division I win over St. Francis. Lose all three closing games, and they’d finish 7–5 with six Division I victories.

Our selection depends on beating South Dakota, not simply maintaining a favorable ranking.

Lehigh Needs To Break The Losing Spell

Consecutive losses to Cornell and Villanova have Lehigh looking a little pale. We’re predicting a November recovery before anyone starts checking the Mountain Hawks for bite marks.

Wins over Bucknell, Colgate, Richmond and Lafayette would produce a 10–2 finish, the Patriot League automatic bid and our No. 15 seed.

Richmond is the pivotal game. We’re forecasting the Spiders beat Holy Cross and William & Mary but lose to Villanova and Lehigh, finishing 8–4 among our Last Four In.

Their Nov. 14 meeting could change both projections: Lehigh needs it to complete our predicted recovery, while Richmond can strengthen its playoff case and pursue the AQ itself.

Six Halloween Games That Could Haunt Our Predictions

South Dakota at South Dakota State: We’re picking the Jackrabbits. A Coyotes win would challenge our MVFC automatic bid and first-round bye projections.
North Dakota at Youngstown State: UND can revive its seeding position by beating the team we expect to hand it another loss.
Tennessee Tech at ETSU: Our projected SoCon champion hosts another seeded contender.
Campbell at UAlbany: The Camels visit our final at-large selection. An upset would give UAlbany’s résumé considerably more life.
UC Davis at Weber State: Two teams outside our field meet with little room for another setback.
Richmond at Holy Cross: The Spiders need this road win before facing Villanova and Lehigh.

How Do The FCS Playoffs Work In 2026?

The FCS playoffs feature 24 teams in a single-elimination bracket.

Eleven conferences receive automatic bids: Big Sky, CAA, Ivy League, MVFC, NEC, Ohio Valley, Patriot League, Pioneer, SoCon, Southland and UAC. The committee selects 13 at-large teams.

The top 16 teams receive seeds, with the first eight earning byes into the second round. Automatic qualifiers can be unseeded.

Selection Sunday is Nov. 22, and the first round begins Nov. 28.

How Can I Watch College Football On FloCollege In 2026?

Fans can watch FCS, Division II and Division III college football games live and on demand on FloCollege throughout the 2026 season.

Visit the FloFootball college football schedule for upcoming games, kickoff times and streaming information.

What College Football Games Are On FloCollege?

FloCollege streams FCS, NCAA Division II and NCAA Division III college football games throughout the 2026 season.

The schedule changes each week. Fans can view the latest FloFootball schedule for upcoming matchups and streaming information.

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