Can you believe it? Our little bubble is a month old already!
And four weeks into the 2026 college football season, the FCS playoff bubble is starting to get weird.
Campbell is unranked but has emerged as my new pick to win the CAA, Colgate went from my First Four Out to inside the field and Harvard needed just one game to make the Ivy League race much more interesting.
Meanwhile, Rhode Island went from a projected seed last week to completely outside the field after Stony Brook hung 56 points on the Rams.
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The rankings are out. The dust has settled. And once again, the playoff picture is ready for another dissection.
Folks, welcome back to the bubble.
You want to know: If the FCS Playoff Selection Committee had to build the 24-team field today, who would make the cut?
Well, wonder no more. Here's my FCS playoff projection after Week 3.
FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 3
How To Read These FCS Playoff Predictions
An automatic qualifier is a team I project to win its conference's automatic playoff bid. An at-large team is one I project to make the field without winning an automatic bid.
The 24-team playoff field is seeded 1-16, with the top eight seeds receiving first-round byes. The seeding is my prediction, while the rankings are from the latest AFCA FCS Coaches Poll.
For this projection, I'm using 11 automatic qualifiers and 13 at-large selections to build the 24-team field.
The Projected FCS Playoff Seeds
Proj. Seed | Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
No. 1 Montana State | Big Sky | Automatic Qualifier
No. 2 South Dakota State | MVFC | Automatic Qualifier
No. 3 Tarleton | UAC | Automatic Qualifier
No. 4t Illinois State | MVFC | At-Large
No. 6 Stephen F. Austin | Southland | Automatic Qualifier
No. 7 Lehigh | Patriot League | Automatic Qualifier
No. 9 UC Davis | Big Sky | At-Large
No. 10 Tennessee Tech | SoCon | Automatic Qualifier
No. 8 North Dakota | MVFC | At-Large
No. 4t Montana | Big Sky | At-Large
No. 11 Austin Peay | UAC | At-Large
No. 12 South Dakota | MVFC | At-Large
No. 13 Youngstown State | MVFC | At-Large
No. 16 Idaho State | Big Sky | At-Large
No. 18 Yale | Ivy League | Automatic Qualifier
No. 25 Harvard | Ivy League | At-Large
My Projected Unseeded FCS Playoff Teams
Rank | Team | Conference | Bid Type
No. 15 Lamar | Southland | At-Large
No. 17 Northern Arizona | Big Sky | At-Large
No. 19 Richmond | Patriot League | At-Large
No. 23t Colgate | Patriot League | At-Large
Campbell | CAA | Automatic Qualifier
Robert Morris | NEC | Automatic Qualifier
Southeast Missouri State | Big South-OVC | Automatic Qualifier
Dayton | Pioneer Football League | Automatic Qualifier
My First Four Out
Campbell Is Unranked. I Don't Care.
Rhode Island was my projected CAA champion last week. Then Stony Brook beat the Rams 56-24, and Campbell opened CAA play by beating North Carolina A&T 42-14.
The Camels didn't just win. They piled up 574 yards, averaged 8.8 yards per play and held A&T to 37 rushing yards. Campbell is 3-1, unbeaten against FCS opponents and has scored at least 28 points in all three of those wins.
Campbell isn't ranked. I don't care. This is a playoff projection, not a copy of the Top 25.
For now, I'm rocking with the Camels.
What Does Rhode Island Need To Get Back In?
Rhode Island fell from my No. 12 seed to outside the field after Stony Brook ran for 321 yards and seven touchdowns in a 56-24 win. The Rams allowed 519 total yards and were outscored 28-7 after halftime.
But don't bury Rhody yet.
The Rams are still without star quarterback Devin Farrell and already own a 31-10 CAA win over 3-1 Elon. Rhode Island forced five turnovers in that game and scored 28 fourth-quarter points to turn a 3-3 defensive battle into a blowout.
The path back is simple: Start stacking wins. Rhode Island gets CAA North Carolina A&T and Brown before a major opportunity against No. 18 Yale.
That Elon win gives the Rams something to build on.
Don't Let Youngstown State's 2-2 Record Fool You
Youngstown State is 2-2. I'm giving the Penguins the No. 13 seed anyway.
The Penguins have already hung 70 points on Duquesne, and last week they went to No. 2 South Dakota State and lost just 27-20. Youngstown actually led SDSU 10-7 in the second quarter, while Beau Brungard threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns.
YSU's losses are to FBS Kentucky (who also beat top 10 Texas A&M) and SDSU. Now comes No. 12 South Dakota, with ranked North Dakota and Illinois State still ahead.
That 2-2 record needs context. For now, the Penguins stay seeded.
Colgate Played Its Way In
Colgate was my second team out last week. Not anymore.
The Raiders are 3-1 after beating Cornell 20-7, holding the Big Red to 238 total yards and forcing three interceptions. Before that, Colgate beat Fordham 24-14 and Holy Cross 35-10, with its only loss coming 13-10 at FBS Central Michigan.
That's a much stronger résumé than simply saying they're No. 23t.
Now comes the hard part. Colgate visits No. 22 Villanova this week before later facing ranked opponents in Harvard, Richmond and Lehigh.
Harvard Needed One Game To Make Things Interesting
Yale remains my projected Ivy League champion, but Harvard made quite a first impression.
The Crimson went to New Hampshire and won 31-7, holding the Wildcats to just 49 rushing yards. Harvard's defense forced three turnovers and stopped New Hampshire on five of its six fourth-down attempts.
That performance sent Harvard into the AFCA poll at No. 25 and into my field at No. 16.
Colgate and Holy Cross provide two more nonconference tests before Harvard eventually meets Yale at Fenway Park.
Could the Ivy send two teams to the playoffs for the second straight year?
The MVFC Are Eating Each Other
Five MVFC teams make my field, and all five are seeded: South Dakota State, Illinois State, North Dakota, South Dakota and Youngstown State.
We've already seen the cannibalism begin.
SDSU beat Youngstown State 27-20 despite the Penguins throwing for 292 yards. Illinois State is 4-0 after hammering Eastern Illinois 49-13. North Dakota and South Dakota are both 3-1, with their only losses coming against FBS Nebraska and Boise State.
Now they start running into each other.
South Dakota still faces Youngstown State, North Dakota, SDSU and Illinois State. Similar gauntlets await the rest of the group.
The MVFC is going to create losses for good teams. For now, all five stay.
The Big Sky Gets Five, Too
Montana State, UC Davis, Montana, Idaho State and Northern Arizona also make my field, and this week should start separating them.
Montana State is 4-0 and already owns a 20-7 FBS win over Nevada. Idaho State's 3-0 start includes a 29-17 win over FBS Utah State.
Meanwhile, Montana just took its first loss, 52-17 at Oregon State, while UC Davis and Northern Arizona moved to 3-1.
Now No. 4t Montana visits No. 9 UC Davis, and No. 17 Northern Arizona goes to No. 1 Montana State. NAU then gets Idaho State and Montana in consecutive weeks.
Five Big Sky teams are in today.
It's Big Sky After Dark this weekend.
What About South Carolina State?
South Carolina State isn't just 4-0. The Bulldogs have been crushing people.
They beat Savannah State 87-0, Florida A&M 31-13 and Virginia State 66-0 before getting their first real test at Furman. South Carolina State won that one, too, 20-17, while holding Furman to just 53 rushing yards.
So why isn't the No. 14 team in my field?
I'm projecting South Carolina State to win the MEAC, whose champion heads to the Celebration Bowl rather than receiving an FCS playoff AQ.
Don't confuse their absence with a lack of respect. The Bulldogs have done just about everything asked of them so far.
Stony Brook Is Knocking On The Door
Stony Brook Football wasn't even in my First Four Out last week.
Then the Seawolves absolutely ran through Rhode Island.
Stony Brook piled up 519 yards in the 56-24 win, including 321 on the ground. The Seawolves rushed for seven touchdowns, converted 10 of 14 third downs and outscored Rhode Island 28-7 after halftime.
That's not just a ranked win. That's a statement. I want to put them in, but the CAA is really deep. Even with the upset, Stony sits at fourth in the CAA.
Stony Brook is still only 2-2, which keeps it outside my field for now. But the Seawolves are my first team out, and a November trip to projected CAA champion Campbell could eventually have major AQ implications.
FCS Playoff Bubble Games To Watch In Week 4
The bubble never sleeps. Here are six Week 4 games that could shake up next week's projection:
No. 4t Montana at No. 9 UC Davis: Two projected seeds meet in one of the biggest Big Sky games of the young season.
No. 17 Northern Arizona at No. 1 Montana State: NAU is one of my Last Four In and has an enormous opportunity to change that.
No. 12 South Dakota at No. 13 Youngstown State: Two projected MVFC seeds meet with very little room for error.
No. 23t Colgate at No. 22 Villanova: Colgate is in my field. Villanova is my fourth team out. Have fun.
No. 10 Tennessee Tech at Wofford: Tennessee Tech can strengthen its hold on my SoCon AQ projection, while Wofford desperately needs a response.
Furman at No. 19 Richmond: Richmond is in. Furman is out. Another direct opportunity to shake up the bubble.
Which Conferences Have The Most Projected FCS Playoff Teams?
The MVFC and Big Sky lead the way in my projected field.
MVFC: 5
Big Sky: 5
Patriot League: 3
UAC: 2
Southland: 2
Ivy League: 2
CAA: 1
SoCon: 1
NEC: 1
Big South-OVC: 1
Pioneer Football League: 1
The MVFC has all five of its projected teams seeded, with Southern Illinois sitting in my First Four Out.
The Big Sky also has four seeded teams, while Northern Arizona is hanging onto one of my final spots.
The Patriot League suddenly has three teams in the field, with undefeated Lehigh leading the way and Richmond and Colgate taking at-large spots.
And now the Ivy League has two.
Four weeks down.
Will this bubble pop?
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