We're only two weeks into the season, and FCS teams already are making it difficult to figure out who belongs in a 24-team playoff field.
Idaho State went from one of my final teams in to a projected seed after upsetting Utah State. The Citadel wasn't in my field last week, but a triple-overtime win over Charlotte changed my mind.
Southern Illinois is knocking on the door, Western Carolina is heading the wrong direction and No. 22 West Florida is beating playoff contenders despite being ineligible for those same playoffs.
Oh, and three FCS teams beat FBS opponents on the same Saturday.
Welcome to the bubble.
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If the FCS Playoff Selection Committee had to build the 24-team field today, who would make the cut?
Here's my FCS playoff projection after Week 1.
FCS Playoff Predictions After Week 1
How To Read These FCS Playoff Predictions
An automatic qualifier is a team I project to win its conference's automatic playoff bid. An at-large team is one I project to make the field without winning an automatic bid.
The 24-team playoff field is seeded 1-16, with the top eight seeds receiving first-round byes. The seeding is my prediction, while the rankings are from the latest AFCA FCS Coaches Poll.
My Projected FCS Playoff Seeds
No. 1 Montana State | Big Sky | Automatic Qualifier
No. 2 Montana | Big Sky | at-large
No. 5 Tarleton | UAC | Automatic Qualifier
No. 4 Illinois State | MVFC | at-large
No. 3 South Dakota State | MVFC | Automatic Qualifier
No. 7 North Dakota | MVFC | at-large
No. 6 UC Davis | Big Sky | at-large
No. 8 Lehigh | Patriot League | Automatic Qualifier
No. 12 South Dakota | MVFC | at-large
No. 13 Rhode Island | CAA | Automatic Qualifier
No. 11 Tennessee Tech | SoCon | Automatic Qualifier
No. 9 Stephen F. Austin | Southland | Automatic Qualifier
No. 10 Youngstown State | MVFC | at-large
No. 24 Idaho State | Big Sky | at-large
No. 15 Austin Peay | UAC | at-large
No. 19 Yale Football | Ivy League | Automatic Qualifier
My Projected Unseeded FCS Playoff Teams
No. 16 William & Mary | Patriot League | at-large
No. 18 Villanova | Patriot League | at-large
No. 14 Mercer | SoCon | at-large
No. 17 Lamar | Southland | at-large
The Citadel | SoCon | at-large
Central Connecticut | NEC | Automatic Qualifier
UT Martin | OVC | Automatic Qualifier
San Diego | Pioneer Football League | Automatic Qualifier
FCS Playoff Bubble: Who's In And Who's Out?
This is where things get fun. Picking Montana State to make the playoffs isn't exactly rocket science.
Figuring out who gets spots 21-24, however, is where things get complicated.
My Last Four In
No. 18 Villanova
No. 16 William & Mary
No. 15 Austin Peay
My First Four Out
The Citadel is my newcomer after beating Charlotte 43-41 in triple overtime. Western Carolina goes the other direction after following its Week 0 win over Eastern Kentucky with a 28-19 loss to Campbell.
I'm keeping Austin Peay despite its 28-9 loss to Vanderbilt. Losing to an FBS opponent isn't enough for me to throw out what I liked about the Governors entering the season, especially when that game was much closer than the scoreboard implies.
Southern Illinois is painfully close. The Salukis beat Samford 22-18 after losing by three to a strong West Florida team in Week 0, but for now, they're still my first team out.
No. 22 West Florida Is Making This Complicated
West Florida can't make the playoffs... but it can certainly make life hard for everyone else.
The Argonauts are 2-0 after beating Southern Illinois 34-31 and Central Arkansas 42-14. This start pushed them all the way to No. 22 in the AFCA poll in their first FCS season.
West Florida remains ineligible for the 2026 FCS Playoffs during its Division I reclassification.
That makes the Argonauts something of a playoff wild card. They can't take a spot, but every contender that plays them can still gain or lose a significant résumé result.
Beat the FBS, Reap the Rewards
Sept. 5 was a pretty good Saturday for the FCS.
Tarleton beat Bowling Green 20-13. Idaho State beat Utah State 29-17. The Citadel beat Charlotte 43-41 in triple overtime.
All three move up my board.
Tarleton goes from my No. 5 seed to No. 3 after Tylan Hines rushed for 250 yards against Bowling Green. The Texans are 2-0 and have now beaten an FBS opponent in consecutive seasons.
Idaho State gets the No. 14 seed.
The Citadel wasn't in my field last week. Now the Bulldogs are.
Sometimes an upset is just an upset. These three were good enough to change my predictions.
Lehigh Gets My Final First-Round Bye
No. 8 Lehigh is 2-0, and I'm moving the Mountain Hawks from my No. 10 seed to No. 8.
A 45-14 Lehigh win over Georgetown certainly helped, but so did losses elsewhere.
South Dakota State, Rhode Island and Youngstown State all lost to FBS opponents. I'm not punishing any of them heavily for those losses, but Lehigh took care of business and deserves to move up.
Watch out! No. 16 William & Mary visits No. 8 Lehigh on Sept. 12.
Ask me about that No. 8 seed again next week.
The Citadel Is In, Western Carolina Is Out
This is the only team-for-team swap in my 24.
The Citadel entered Week 1 angry after losing 42-14 to Wofford. Then the Bulldogs went to Charlotte, rushed for 268 yards and six touchdowns and left with a triple-overtime FBS upset.
That's enough for me. The Citadel is in. Western Carolina is out.
The Catamounts made my Week 0 field after beating Eastern Kentucky 45-21, but a 28-19 loss to Campbell sends them into my First Four Out.
The Citadel isn't suddenly a playoff lock. It already has a SoCon loss and received just one vote in the new AFCA poll. But if I'm choosing between bubble teams today, that Charlotte win carries weight.
Which Conferences Have The Most Projected FCS Playoff Teams?
Despite all this movement, my conference totals didn't change.
MVFC: 5
Big Sky: 4
Patriot League: 3
SoCon: 3
UAC: 2
Southland: 2
CAA: 1
Ivy League: 1
NEC: 1
OVC: 1
Pioneer Football League: 1
Two weeks down. Plenty of football left.
And if Week 1 taught me anything, this field won't stay the same for long.
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