Which D2 Football Teams Can Beat FCS Opponents In August?

Which D2 football teams have the best shot to beat FCS opponents in August 2026? Albany State, Roosevelt, and UTPB headline the early upset watch.

Aug 10, 2026 by R. R. Ellis

Which D2 Football Teams Can Beat FCS Opponents In August?

From 2021 through 2025, 15 different NCAA Division 2 football programs defeated FCS opponents. None did so in 2025.

The open the 2026 season, D2 programs have 16 shots at defeating an FCS team just in August. In general, the edge nearly always falls to the FCS team. They have the scholarships, the facilities, the depth, and in most cases the home field advantage.

Still, it's worth looking through the opportunities where Division 2 teams can steal a win, and the narrative around those games is more interesting than you'd think.

To sort through the August schedule, I used Massey Ratings' preseason projections and win percentage, then weighed context around each game, and program trajectories. But these games are not simply ranked on which D2 team has the best chance of winning.

Here's what to know.

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1. Albany State At Florida A&M, Aug. 29

Massey win probability: Albany State 34%
Massey projection: Florida A&M 28, Albany State 21
Why it’s here: Quinn Gray.

When Quinn Gray left Albany State after leading them to a 12-2 season, taking the job at his alma-mater Florida A&M, I wonder if he knew his first test could come against his old program. Albany State and FAMU played each other in 2025 and in 2022, with the Golden Rams losing both, most recently 33-25 last season. David Bowser replaced Gray at ASU. He came over from Johnson C. Smith, where he worked as the special assistant to the head coach while also handling player personnel and linebackers.

Massey gives ASU a 34-percent chance to win the game, but the narrative is stronger: playing against your old coach.

2. Roosevelt At Chicago State, Aug. 29

Massey win probability: Roosevelt 78%
Massey projection: Roosevelt 35, Chicago State 14
Why it’s here: the best probability, but also the weirdest one.

Roosevelt hasn't had a winning season since 2023, and in the last two seasons they've won a combined three games, two coming from 2025. They allowed opponents to score an average of 48 points last season, including a 66-0 thumping against champion Ferris State. Still, could the Lakers beat an FCS team that's never had a win in their history? Chicago State enters their first season ever as a football program with a blank slate, literally. There's simply no data that tells us how the Cougars will do in their first matchup Thus Massey gives the Lakers a 78-percent chance of winning.

3. UT Permian Basin At UTRGV, Aug. 29

Massey win probability: UTPB 24%
Massey projection: UTRGV 34, UTPB 21
Why it’s here: Best measuring-stick game.

Kris McCullough led UT Permian Basin to a 28-10 record over three seasons, including a 21-5 Lone Star Conference record. McCullough also led the Falcons to the D2 quarterfinals in 2025. As he leaves to coach Gardner-Webb, it'll be interesting to see how the winning culture he cultivated at Odessa continues. Chris Softley takes over as UTPB coach after a 100-win high school coaching career. Already, Softley has been stamping his influence on the program.

UTRGV will present a big test, though. In their inaugural football season last year, the Vaqueros went 9-3, including a 7-0 home record. UTRGV also scored an average of 39 points a game last season. Still, Massey gives the Falcons a 24-percent chance of winning as they begin the Softley era.

Honorable Mentions

Morehouse vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Aug. 29

Massey win probability: Morehouse 20%
Massey projection: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 34, Morehouse 20

Winona State at St. Thomas, Aug. 27

Massey win probability: Winona State 15%
Massey projection: St. Thomas 34, Winona State 17

Concord at Davidson, Aug. 27

Massey win probability: Concord 19%
Massey projection: Davidson 37, Concord 20

Every D2 Vs. FCS Game In August 2026

Aug. 27

Winona State vs. St. Thomas
South Dakota Mines vs. Drake
UVA Wise vs. Presbyterian
Glenville State vs. Elon
Concord vs. Davidson
Ohio Dominican vs. Morehead State
Anderson vs. Furman

Aug. 29

Fairmont State vs. Dayton
UT Permian Basin vs. UTRGV
Albany State vs. Florida A&M
Clark Atlanta vs. Grambling State
Savannah State vs. South Carolina State
Roosevelt vs. Chicago State
Winston-Salem State vs. Norfolk State
Morehouse vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
Miles vs. Alcorn State

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