Final X is set to go down on June 19 in Newark, New Jersey, and will feature the country’s best wrestlers with world team spots on the line. One of the most intriguing matchups of the night will be a continuation of the rivalry between Luke Lilledahl and Spencer Lee at 57 kg. Check out the article below to see a full breakdown, with a prediction, for this matchup at Final X.
Key Credentials
Spencer Lee
- 2024 Olympic silver
- 3X NCAA champion
- 2X Dan Hodge Trophy Award winner
- 3X Age-Level World champion
Luke Lilledahl
- 2026 NCAA champion
- 3X Age-Level World champion
- 2026 US Open champion
Lee vs Lilledahl Match History
2026 US Open - Lilledahl over Lee, 5-4
2025 Final X match 2 - Lee over Lilledahl, 6-0
2025 Final X match 1 - Lee over Lilledahl, 7-2
2023 Bill Farrell - Lee over Lilledahl, 11-0
Luke Lilledahl's win over Spencer Lee at the US Open
Breaking Down The Matchup
Was the US Open an isolated result for Spencer Lee? Has Luke Lilledahl truly surpassed Lee as the US’s top guy at 57 kg? Can Spencer Lee re-establish himself as the clear favorite for the Olympic spot in two years? What adjustments will each wrestler make since the US Open in April? These are all questions we will get the answers to when Lilledahl and Lee meet at Final X on June 19th.
Lee had a clear advantage in this matchup heading into the US Open. He was 3-0 against Lilledahl with a combined score of 24-2. However, Lilledahl had narrowed the game from their first meeting to their second/third (2023 & 2025), and was coming off an undefeated NCAA championship season. Things were going similarly to the first three matches until Lilledahl hit a last-second headlock to get an exposure and win 5-4.
How Lee Scores Against Lilledahl
How Lilledahl Scores Against Lee
Takedown Breakdown
Lee - 1X high crotch, 1X snap go-behind, 1X downblock go-behind
Lilledahl - 1X duck under, 1X single leg
Notable Takeaways
When Spencer gets on top, he gets a turn (100% turn rate)
95% of Spencer’s points come in the first period - just 1 step out (Final X match 1 came in the 2nd)
Who Wins At Final X?
The MO for Spencer Lee has been the same forever - score in bunches early and then hold off his opponents with exceptional defense in the second half. He wasn’t able to do either of these things at the US Open. Lee opted for shooting a single leg in this match and wasn’t able to get a takedown, just three stepouts. In addition to scoring half the amount of points up front (2s vs 1s), this didn’t allow Lee to use his par terre offense. And Lee has a 100% turn rate so far when he gets on top of Lilledahl.
I’m not denying how big Lilledahl’s win over Lee was at the US Open. No doubt that was a huge confidence builder. I’m giving Lilledahl a very real shot at repeating it at Final X. However, I think Spencer can get back on top and pick up a couple of turns in at least two of the matches.