The QMJHL playoff picture is set, and the path to the Gilles-Courteau Trophy is officially in focus.

At the top, two teams have clearly separated themselves: the Moncton Wildcats and the Chicoutimi Saguenéens. With the bracket now locked, both contenders sit on opposite sides — putting them on a potential collision course for the final.

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Here’s how each team’s road to that potential showdown could unfold.

Moncton Wildcats (1)

Finishing first overall didn’t come easy for Moncton, but once fully healthy, they looked every bit like a championship team — and as the defending champions, the Wildcats have proven they know how to handle the pressure that comes with being the team to beat.

After opening the season 7-4-2 without captain Caleb Desnoyers, the Wildcats flipped the switch — going 43-6-2 the rest of the way with their leader back in the lineup. 

The race for first went down to the wire, with Moncton edging Chicoutimi by a single point (104 to 103), securing home-ice advantage throughout the playoffs. 

First Round: New Brunswick Showdown

Moncton draws a familiar opponent in the Saint John Sea Dogs — and the numbers paint a one-sided picture.

The Wildcats dominated the season series 7-1, and the gap between the two teams shows up across every key category. Moncton finished second in the league in both goals for (302) and goals against (164), while posting a +138 differential, also second overall. Their special teams were just as sharp, ranking second on the power play (31.8%) and penalty kill (82.4%).

Saint John, meanwhile, sits further back in the pack — ninth in scoring (216 goals), 16th in goals against (265), and 15th in goal differential (-49). Their power play (22.7%) and penalty kill (78.2%) have been serviceable, but not enough to close the gap.

Add in a favorable travel setup within the Maritimes, and this matchup clearly tilts in Moncton’s favors heading into the opening round.

The Road Ahead

This year’s QMJHL playoffs introduce a key structural twist that significantly reshapes the path to the final.

For the first time, cross-conference matchups will begin in the second round, with teams reseeded strictly based on their overall regular-season standings. In previous years, the league held onto its conference format until the semifinals, only then reseeding the final four teams from one to four. That familiar model still applies in the third round, where the remaining teams will once again be ranked based on their regular-season performance.

If the favorites hold serve in Round 1, Moncton would remain in a favorable position, drawing one of the lowest-seeded teams left. A second-round matchup with Cape Breton is very much in play — a team the Wildcats controlled with a 7-1 record this season, though it’s worth noting that half of those games required extra time, with Moncton consistently finding a way to close.

Finishing first overall could truly pay dividends in the semifinals. With reseeding in effect, the Wildcats would face the lowest-ranked of the four remaining teams, potentially avoiding a heavier matchup. Meanwhile, Chicoutimi’s path could be more demanding, with a possible showdown against a team like Blainville-Boisbriand — widely viewed as a top contender coming into the season.

Chicoutimi Saguenéens (2)

Players like Maxim Massé, who has been with the Chicoutimi Saguenéens since his rookie season in 2022-23, highlight the team’s remarkable turnaround this year after several challenging seasons. It’s been a long wait for the “Bleus,” and now both the organization and its passionate fanbase can finally dream of ending a 32-year championship drought. 

That belief isn’t limited to the locker room — it’s echoed behind the bench. Head coach Yanick Jean acknowledged the growing buzz around his team, but made it clear where the pressure truly comes from.

“We can feel the excitement and the expectations around the team here in Saguenay. The fans had circled 2026 for a while now,” he said. “But the pressure, we put it on ourselves — we want to win.”

Although the team wasn’t able to finish first overall, what a season it’s been for the Sags. They led the league in multiple key categories, including goals for (321), goals against (150), goal differential (+171), power play (32.7%) and penalty kill (87.2%). Already viewed as serious contenders midway through the season, Chicoutimi doubled down by reinforcing its lineup at every position, making it clear they were all in. Major acquisitions like Jordan Tourigny, Liam Lefebvre and Lucas Beckman have all settled in seamlessly, turning the Sags into an extremely difficult team to beat.

That internal standard is also reflected in the group’s confidence level.

“Our players believe in this team,” Jean added. “Our record against top teams and the way we’ve played in those games gives us that confidence. The guys know how to make a difference and when to raise their level.”

Halifax In Round 1

In the first round, Chicoutimi will face the Halifax Mooseheads, a matchup that will require at least one trip to the Maritimes. The Sags won both regular-season meetings between the two teams, including a dominant 9–3 victory early in the season and a 5–4 overtime win in January.

On paper, the Mooseheads’ numbers don’t compare favorably. They finished 10th in goals scored (214), 14th in goals against (258), and 14th in goal differential (-44), while ranking 10th on the power play (22.4%) and 13th on the penalty kill (77%). For a team that struggled defensively all season and had difficulty killing penalties, facing the league’s top offense and most efficient power play presents a daunting challenge — making it difficult to envision an upset in this series.

The Road Ahead

By finishing second overall, Chicoutimi could face a significant test as early as the second round, likely squaring off against the winner of what shapes up to be the most compelling first-round matchup: Shawinigan Cataractes versus Sherbrooke Phoenix. Sherbrooke, in particular, enters the playoffs on a strong run and has beaten the Sags twice in the final weeks of the regular season.

Chicoutimi held the edge in the season series against Shawinigan with a 3–1 record, while their matchups with Sherbrooke were evenly split. The Phoenix, however, slightly outscored the Sags 14–12 over those four games, underlining just how tight that battle could be. Both potential opponents also boast high-quality goaltending—often a deciding factor in long playoff runs—but containing the league’s top offense will be a daunting challenge.

The question now becomes whether facing elite competition early will sharpen Chicoutimi for a deep run — or whether their championship hopes could be tested much sooner than expected.

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